Ethanol’s Mid-Life Crisis – The Economist

The Economist really loves Brazil, they keep writing about it. A sign of the times, perhaps?

“IT IS what passes for a winter’s day in upstate São Paulo. The sun is blazing from a blue sky feathered lightly with cirrus cloud. In a large, sloping field overlooking the city of Piracicaba, a mechanical harvester chomps through a stand of three-metre-high sugar cane, fat and juicy from months of sunshine. The harvester slices the cane into 20cm chunks and regurgitates them into a 30-tonne trailer moving alongside that will lug them a few kilometres to the Costa Pinto mill (pictured). There the cane is weighed, washed, tipped onto a conveyor belt, crushed and then, depending on market conditions, crystallised into sugar or distilled into ethanol. The woody residue—the bagaço—is burned in two high-pressure boilers that, according to the flickering needle in the control room, are supplying around 50 megawatts (MW) of electricity to the local grid—enough to power half of Piracicaba.

Sugar has been grown in Brazil for 500 years, and the country is by far the world’s biggest exporter of it. But sugar now also forms the nucleus of a new agro-industrial and renewable-energy complex. Biofuels, mainly derived from sugar, are Brazil’s most important source of energy after oil. For a unit of energy, the production and use of sugar-based ethanol generates only two-fifths of the carbon emissions of petrol, and half those of corn-based ethanol, according to the United States Environmental Protection Agency. And bioplastics made from sugar cane are poised to move from the laboratory to the corner store, with the launch of soft-drink bottles.

Yet the industry is struggling to turn all these economic and environmental benefits into reliable revenues. For that it largely blames the government and is duly arguing for a more favourable regulatory regime. But it should watch out. The government, in turn, accuses the industry of wanting to have the best of both the agricultural and energy worlds. It could yet make the industry’s life harder.

Since Brazil relaxed price and production controls on sugar cane two decades ago, its crop has increased by two and a half times. Nearly all the growth has come from large, mechanised farms in the south-central region—hundreds of miles away from the Amazon rainforest. Ethanol output has more than doubled since 2002, thanks to the development of flex-fuel engines for cars, capable of running on either petrol or ethanol indistinguishably. More than half the cars in Brazil now have flex-fuel engines, and that figure should rise to 90% by 2017, according to Marcos Jank of UNICA, the sugar-industry association in São Paulo. In addition, Brazil’s government requires petrol to be sold in a blend of three or four parts to one of ethanol.

Given its environmental benefits, sugar-based ethanol has the potential to be a global industry. That is why Royal Dutch Shell has set up a $12 billion joint venture with Cosan, Brazil’s biggest sugar and ethanol producer. The new venture, signed on August 25th, combines the two companies’ service stations in Brazil, totalling 4,500. Shell is also contributing $1.6 billion in cash and its stakes in biofuel-research companies, while Cosan is putting in its 23 sugar mills, including Costa Pinto.” – Source (more here)

The Limits of the Bolsa Família – Economist

“Three generations of the Teixeira family live in three tiny rooms in Eldorado, one of the poorest favelas (slums) of Greater São Paulo, the largest city in the Americas. The matriarch of the family, Maria, has six children; her eldest daughter, Marina, has a toddler and a baby. Like many other households in the favela, the family has been plagued by domestic violence. But a few years ago, helped in part by Bolsa Família (family grant)—which pays mothers a small sum so long as their children stay in education and get medical check-ups—Maria took her children out of child labour and sent them to school.

The programme allows the children to miss about 15% of classes. But if a child gets caught missing more than that, payment is suspended for the whole family. The Teixeiras’ grant has been suspended and restarted several times as boy after boy skipped classes. And now the eldest, João, aged 16, is out earning a bit of money by cleaning cars or distributing leaflets, taking his younger brothers with him. Marina’s pregnancies have added to the pressure. She gets no money for her children because she lives with her mother and the family has reached Bolsa Família’s upper limit. After rallying for a while, the Teixeira family is sliding backwards, struggling more than it did a couple of years ago.

Their experience does not mean Bolsa Família has been a failure. On the contrary. By common consent the conditional cash-transfer programme (CCT) has been a stunning success and is wildly popular. It was expanded in 2003, the year Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva became Brazil’s president, and several times since; 12.4m households are now enrolled. Candidates for the presidency (the election is on October 3rd) are competing to say who will expand it more. The opposition’s José Serra says he will increase coverage to 15m households. The ruling party’s Dilma Rousseff, who was Lula’s chief of staff, says she is the programme’s true guardian. It is, in the words of a former World Bank president, a “model of effective social policy” and has been exported round the world. New York’s Opportunity NYC is partly based on it.” – Economist (for more go here)

Brazil takes off – The Economist

The Economist came out with a 14-page (baixar) report on Brazil and here’s the cover with Christ as a rocket.

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“WHEN, back in 2003, economists at Goldman Sachs bracketed Brazil with Russia, India and China as the economies that would come to dominate the world, there was much sniping about the B in the BRIC acronym. Brazil? A country with a growth rate as skimpy as its swimsuits, prey to any financial crisis that was around, a place of chronic political instability, whose infinite capacity to squander its obvious potential was as legendary as its talent for football and carnivals, did not seem to belong with those emerging titans.

Now that scepticism looks misplaced. China may be leading the world economy out of recession but Brazil is also on a roll. It did not avoid the downturn, but was among the last in and the first out. Its economy is growing again at an annualised rate of 5%. It should pick up more speed over the next few years as big new deep-sea oilfields come on stream, and as Asian countries still hunger for food and minerals from Brazil’s vast and bountiful land. Forecasts vary, but sometime in the decade after 2014—rather sooner than Goldman Sachs envisaged—Brazil is likely to become the world’s fifth-largest economy, overtaking Britain and France. By 2025 São Paulo will be its fifth-wealthiest city, according to PwC, a consultancy.” – Economist (a little more here)